Home Sales Will Rise in 2026. Here Is What That Means for Kansas City’s Luxury Market
The national outlook for 2026 is starting to feel like one of those moments when the lights finally flick back on after a power outage. Existing home sales are expected to jump 14 percent as mortgage rates drift toward about 6 percent, and honestly, that shift alone gives a lot of sellers the confidence they’ve been waiting for to step back into the market.
Here in Kansas City, figuring out what all this means for the $750,000+ luxury space really comes down to one simple rule of thumb:
0 to 3 months of inventory means a seller’s market.
3 to 6 months means things are balanced.
6 plus months means buyers get the upper hand.
Once you look at it through that lens, the October 2025 Heartland MLS report starts to make a lot of sense. The luxury market here has real sales volume, plenty of active listings, and supply levels that honestly shift pretty dramatically as price climbs. I remember scrolling through these numbers and thinking it felt a bit like walking through different rooms of the same house every space has its own mood.
$700,000 to $799,999: High Sales Volume, Strong Seller’s Market
• 108 homes sold
• 191 active
• 1.77 months of supply
• 53 days of inventory
This is the busiest luxury price band of the month. Even with almost 200 homes on the market, they’re moving fast. It’s kind of like grabbing the last few good seats at a concert as soon as tickets open people act quickly because they have to.
$800,000 to $899,999: Steady Activity with a Seller Advantage
• 59 sold
• 147 active
• 2.49 months of supply
• 75 days of inventory
Things slow down just a touch here, but there still isn’t enough inventory to shift the power away from sellers. Buyers have options, but not too many.
$900,000 to $999,999: Seller-Favored with Controlled Inventory
• 38 sold
• 96 active
• 2.53 months of supply
• 76 days of inventory
Sales ease up again as price rises, but supply stays tight. It’s like the market is moving carefully, not slowly.
$1,000,000 to $1,499,999: Sliding Toward a Balanced Market
• 59 sold
• 200 active
• 3.39 months of supply
• 102 days of inventory
This is where things start to even out. Crossing that 3 month line changes the feel of the whole category. Sellers still do well, but buyers finally have some room to negotiate. It reminds me of when you go from rush hour to regular traffic not empty, not crowded, just… normal.
$1,500,000 to $1,999,999: Back to a Seller’s Market
• 25 sold
• 60 active
• 2.40 months of supply
• 72 days of inventory
Even though sales slow down, inventory stays low enough to put sellers right back in charge.
$2,000,000+: The Only True Buyer’s Market in Kansas City Luxury
• 15 sold
• 90 active
• 6.00 months of supply
• 180 days of inventory
This is the one tier where buyers finally get the upper hand. With 6 months of inventory and longer days on market, things move at a much calmer pace. You don’t have to rush the way you do in the lower luxury brackets.
How National Trends Support Local Luxury Stability
National analysts are expecting home prices to rise another 4 percent in 2026 thanks to strong demand and not nearly enough supply. Lawrence Yun from NAR has already pointed out that home prices nationwide aren’t in any real danger of dropping. When you pair that with Kansas City’s own supply numbers, you get a luxury market that’s steady and resilient especially between $750,000 and $1.5 million, where inventory stays lean and homes keep moving.
Looking Ahead
Overall, Kansas City’s luxury market is heading into 2026 from a position of strength.
• $750K to $1M: Clear seller’s market
• $1M to $1.5M: Balanced conditions emerging
• $1.5M to $2M: Back to seller control
• $2M+: Buyer’s market
Each range tells its own story. And whether you’re planning to list or trying to find the right high end home, having a clear strategy matters. Felicia and I are here to walk through that with you and help you step into the new year with confidence.
